Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 21,889
2 New York 21,302
3 Arizona 21,024
4 New Jersey 20,243
5 Florida 18,151
6 Rhode Island 17,131
7 Massachusetts 16,633
8 District of Columbia 16,395
9 Mississippi 16,146
10 Alabama 15,135
11 South Carolina 14,878
12 Delaware 14,299
13 Georgia 13,549
14 Connecticut 13,528
15 Maryland 13,463
16 Illinois 13,318
17 Nevada 13,014
18 Texas 12,970
19 Iowa 12,930
20 Tennessee 12,395
21 Nebraska 12,312
22 Arkansas 12,015
23 Utah 11,284
24 California 10,963
25 North Carolina 10,215
26 Virginia 9,517
27 Idaho 9,435
28 South Dakota 9,204
29 Indiana 9,072
30 New Mexico 8,662
31 Minnesota 8,646
32 Wisconsin 8,544
33 Pennsylvania 8,526
34 Michigan 8,469
35 Kansas 8,415
36 Colorado 7,364
37 North Dakota 7,213
38 Oklahoma 7,068
39 Washington 6,862
40 Ohio 6,859
41 Missouri 6,504
42 Kentucky 5,781
43 New Hampshire 4,646
44 Puerto Rico 4,218
45 Wyoming 4,055
46 Oregon 3,737
47 Alaska 3,666
48 West Virginia 3,096
49 Maine 2,780
50 Montana 2,735
51 Vermont 2,206
52 Hawaii 1,036

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 484
2 Mississippi 466
3 Florida 457
4 Alabama 361
5 Nevada 355
6 Arizona 353
7 Texas 349
8 Georgia 347
9 South Carolina 334
10 Tennessee 327
11 California 278
12 Idaho 276
13 Arkansas 257
14 Oklahoma 213
15 Missouri 210
16 North Carolina 186
17 Utah 171
18 Wisconsin 171
19 Nebraska 167
20 North Dakota 160
21 Iowa 153
22 New Mexico 150
23 Kentucky 138
24 Alaska 123
25 Indiana 122
26 Maryland 118
27 Ohio 114
28 Kansas 111
29 Virginia 111
30 Illinois 110
31 District of Columbia 109
32 Puerto Rico 105
33 Delaware 102
34 Colorado 101
35 Washington 100
36 Minnesota 95
37 Wyoming 92
38 Montana 88
39 Rhode Island 76
40 South Dakota 75
41 West Virginia 75
42 Michigan 70
43 Pennsylvania 69
44 Oregon 67
45 Massachusetts 41
46 New York 40
47 New Jersey 32
48 Hawaii 22
49 Connecticut 16
50 New Hampshire 16
51 Vermont 9
52 Maine 6

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,770
2 New York 1,658
3 Connecticut 1,236
4 Massachusetts 1,230
5 Rhode Island 944
6 District of Columbia 823
7 Louisiana 792
8 Michigan 640
9 Illinois 596
10 Maryland 563
11 Pennsylvania 557
12 Delaware 543
13 Mississippi 482
14 Indiana 427
15 Arizona 421
16 Colorado 310
17 Georgia 309
18 New Hampshire 297
19 Alabama 284
20 New Mexico 284
21 Minnesota 283
22 Ohio 278
23 Iowa 259
24 South Carolina 259
25 Florida 256
26 Virginia 240
27 Nevada 230
28 California 207
29 Washington 203
30 Missouri 197
31 North Carolina 167
32 Nebraska 164
33 Texas 162
34 Kentucky 158
35 Wisconsin 152
36 South Dakota 136
37 Tennessee 133
38 North Dakota 132
39 Arkansas 127
40 Oklahoma 120
41 Kansas 111
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 87
44 Utah 84
45 Idaho 79
46 Oregon 65
47 Puerto Rico 58
48 West Virginia 57
49 Wyoming 43
50 Montana 40
51 Alaska 23
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 12
2 South Carolina 11
3 Louisiana 8
4 Mississippi 8
5 Alabama 7
6 Florida 6
7 Nevada 6
8 Texas 6
9 Georgia 5
10 California 3
11 Idaho 3
12 Tennessee 3
13 Arkansas 2
14 Delaware 2
15 Indiana 2
16 Iowa 2
17 Massachusetts 2
18 Missouri 2
19 New Mexico 2
20 North Carolina 2
21 Oklahoma 2
22 Utah 2
23 Colorado 1
24 Illinois 1
25 Maryland 1
26 Montana 1
27 New Hampshire 1
28 New York 1
29 North Dakota 1
30 Ohio 1
31 Oregon 1
32 Pennsylvania 1
33 Rhode Island 1
34 South Dakota 1
35 Washington 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Connecticut 0
39 District of Columbia 0
40 Hawaii 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Kentucky 0
43 Maine 0
44 Michigan 0
45 Minnesota 0
46 Nebraska 0
47 New Jersey 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 137,894 1 99
Lake Tennessee 100,200 2 99
Lee Arkansas 98,002 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,878 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 90,010 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 27,127 118 96
Richland South Carolina 16,084 370 88
Orange California 10,281 796 74
York South Carolina 9,492 884 71
Pierce Washington 5,066 1559 50

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 2,929 5 99
Richland South Carolina 293 628 80
Davidson Tennessee 258 705 77
Orange California 171 945 69
Pierce Washington 136 1098 65
York South Carolina 64 1591 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons